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3 Things To Watch This Week

With massive uncertainty everywhere from the economy, to the coronavirus, to politics, to the protests and riots…

Over the last few weeks I’ve shown you the things I’m watching every week to see if the economy is recovering or stagnating.

As of this writing there’s no major clear economic signs either way due to the continued issues related to the coronavirus.

Today, during this Holiday shortened week I want to give you some clarity on 3 Things To Watch This Week that will affect your portfolio and the economy…

  1. Earnings Seasons Continues Rolling

Earnings season is here in full affect and companies are reporting generally poor earnings in the 2nd quarter of 2020.

This was expected due to the lockdowns and quarantines and overall lack of people doing things, buying stuff, and going places.


Because an estimated 70% of United States economic output is based on consumer spending.

So far banks, oil companies, restaurants, hotels, airlines, and car companies all appear to be big losers of this earnings season.

And tech companies and food producers and sellers appear to be the biggest winners.

Although towards the end of last week tech names began falling… With Apple losing more than a quarter of a billion dollars in market cap just last week.

I’ll keep you up to date on what these mean – if anything important – to the long-term prospects of the companies we’ve written about.

You can find links to these recommendations at the end of this message.

Seeing quarterly and yearly earnings helps me understand what’s going on in the market via individual stocks… And this helps me spot potential trends to take advantage of and trouble areas to watch out for so I can let you know about them.

Another major thing to keep an eye on – especially during crazy times like now – are when the US government releases updated financial and employment data.

Why do I watch this?

For the same reasons as above… To help spot potential trends you can and should take advantage of.  And, to help you avoid potential major problem areas.

Here are the major government data releases I’m watching this week.

2. Initial Jobless Claims – Releases September 10th

Pay attention to the trend.

From March until about June this number declined on a weekly basis… Even though the absolute numbers were still horrific.  The decline was a great sign we were headed in the right direction in terms of employment.

Then when the coronavirus cases began exploding again in July, unemployment started rising again on a weekly basis.

A month ago, this fell below 1 million jobs losses for the first time since March 2020.

Three weeks ago, this jumped back above 1 million to 1.1 million new jobs lost.

Two weeks ago, this was above 1 million new jobs lost again…

And then last week this fell below 900,000 new jobs lost.

If the trend continues down this week, that’s a great sign of economic recovery.

If it goes back up it’s a sign the recovery may be stalling.

Again, the trend here will be more important than the absolute number.  And I’ll keep you up to date on this in the coming weeks.

3. Continuing Jobless Claims – Releases September 10th

For the same reasons as above this is also ultra-important.

But a further note on this one is that this is the number of people still receiving federal and state unemployment benefits each week.

This amount fell slightly a month ago which is a good first sign of an economic recovery.

Then it fell slightly the week after that…

Then again slightly the week after that…

And then again last week.

The trend here so far is good.  And the “official” United States unemployment rate is now down to 8.4%.

But we still need to watch this because there are still far too many unemployed people for a “healthy” economy.

If this keeps going down this week, it’s a good sign the economy is recovering.

If it raises again it’s a sign the recovery is stalling.

You want to see this go down significantly over time because that means more people are back working.

And that’s a good sign not just for people and their families.  But also, for the entire economy.

These are the major things I’m watching this week.  I’ll keep you updated on all this going forward.

Here are the articles from the last week in case you missed any…

Use the following links to some of our recent articles to learn other ways to protect yourself and your investments in these uncertain times. 

Disclosure – Jason Rivera is a 13+ year veteran value investor who now spends much of his time helping other investors earn higher than average investment returns safely. He does not have any holdings in any securities mentioned above and the article expresses his own opinions. He has no business relationship with any company mentioned above.

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