4 Pieces Of Info To Watch This Week
With massive uncertainty everywhere from the economy, to the coronavirus, to unemployment, to the protests and riots, the upcoming election, and now the White House dealing with the coronavirus…
Things are nuts.
Over the last few weeks, I’ve shown you things I’m watching every week to see if the economy is recovering or stagnating so you can make better investment decisions.
Today I want to show you 4 Things This Week That Will Affect Your Portfolio and the economy going forward.
- Earnings Season Continues Rolling
Earnings season is here in full affect and companies are reporting generally poor earnings in the 2nd quarter of 2020.
This was expected due to the lockdowns and quarantines.
Because an estimated 70% of United States economic output is based on consumer spending… This is us doing stuff.
So far banks, oil companies, restaurants, hotels, airlines, and car companies are all big losers of this earnings season.
And tech companies and food producers and sellers are the biggest winners.
Seeing quarterly and yearly earnings helps me understand what’s going on in the market via individual stocks…
Another major thing to keep an eye on – especially during crazy times like now – are when the US government releases updated financial and employment data.
Why do I watch this?
For the same reasons I watch quarterly and yearly stock earnings… To help spot potential trends you can and should take advantage of. And, to help you avoid serious issues.
This week major banks release earnings… It will be important to watch them to gauge the state of the economy.
Here are the important government data releases I’m watching this week.
2. Initial Jobless Claims – Releases October 15th.
Keep watching the trend…
From March-June this number declined on a weekly basis.
The absolute numbers were horrific. But the decline was a great sign we’re headed in the right direction in terms of employment.
Then when coronavirus cases began exploding in July, unemployment started rising again.
Last week these rose to 840,000 new job losses compared to the 800,000 jobs lost the week before.
It’s a good sign this is falling from the millions of jobs lost per week earlier in this pandemic.
But the weekly job losses are still far too high for a “solid” economic recovery.
Especially because these are still historically high now seven months into the pandemic. AND this week’s numbers still don’t include California’s jobless claims because the last two weeks it hasn’t reported any as it works to catch up on the back log.
3. Continuing Jobless Claims – Releases October 15th
For the same reasons as job losses above, this is also ultra-important.
But a further note on this… It’s the number of people still receiving federal and state unemployment benefits each week instead of weekly job losses.
This week continuing jobless claims fell by 1 million to 10.97 million. Which is way down from the 26 million earlier this year.
The trend here so far is good.
But we still need to watch this because there are still far too many unemployed people for a “healthy” economy.
4. Retail Sales – Released on October 16th.
Because 70% of the US economy is based on consumption – i.e. you and I doing and buying stuff. This number is also important.
Retail sales as of the most recent data are still down huge from this time last year… But they’ve recovered from the lows hit earlier this year.
This month’s data will show what happened in September to see if retail sales continued rising… Or if they fell again.
Rising retail sales is a good sign of economic recovery… Falling retail sales is a sign the recovery is slowing.
As of this writing the economy is recovering from the worst of things back in March and April… But now the recovery appears to be slowing as we head into Fall.
These are the major things I’m watching this week. I’ll keep you updated on all this going forward.
Here are the articles from the last week in case you missed any…
- 2 Large Dividend Stocks To Avoid
- 1 More Reason To Avoid Bed Bath & Beyond
- 1 Reason To Avoid Salesforce
- 1 Reason To Avoid Nvidia
- 3 Reasons To Avoid Charter Communications
Use the following links to some of our recent articles to learn other ways to protect yourself and your investments in these uncertain times.
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Disclosure – Jason Rivera is a 13+ year veteran value investor who now spends much of his time helping other investors earn higher than average investment returns safely. He does not have any holdings in any securities mentioned above and the article expresses his own opinions. He has no business relationship with any company mentioned above.